Third-Party Candidate RFK Jr. Is Breaking the Left and Right Coalitions
Using the U.S. Political Compass and Pew Research to Visualize Shifting Electoral Support
First a Feb 13th update that emphasizes the importance of this topic: a recent NBC News poll has shown that a 34% of voters can see themselves supporting RFK Jr.’s campaign. Both sides call him a spoiler, but he has been drawing evenly from republican-leaning and democrat-leaning in some polls.
A Pew Research Center survey of the U.S. general public, in 2021, showed nine clusters of political beliefs and values. The origin of these Pew labels and descriptors are described in detail in an earlier post. If you’ve become familiar with these types, skip down to the new content below these quadrants.
Pew Political Types Within the Quadrants of the U.S. Political Compass
The order in which the following sections are presented is based on candidate ranking in the most recent (January 31) poll that included these three candidates (Quinnipiac University, 2024, para. 6).
Biden’s Support Base
According to a Quinnipiac University national poll published January 31st, Among Democrats, the top issue is preserving democracy in the United States (39%) followed by the economy (12%), with no other issue reaching double digits” (sec. Most Urgent Issue).
The Pew Research Center (2021) study states of the Pew type labeled establishment liberals, “nearly half (47%) have college degrees (a quarter have postgraduate degrees). About one-in-five (23%) live in upper-income households, a higher share than in any other Democratic-oriented typology” (p. 88). This Democrat elite would be expected to support the establishment and to have the most allegiance to an incumbent Democrat.
As a group largely comprised of the baby boomer generation, the democratic mainstays are likely less concerned about Biden’s age. They may believe the advantage of long experience outweighs the concerns about Biden remaining in top mental sharpness.
Unlike the other lib-left Pew type, the progressive left is likely to find off-putting the fact that RFK Jr. has strong appeal to Libertarians and other free-speech advocates. Among this group are the activists demanding limitations on language they believe is dangerous. Though many RFK Jr. policies (pro-peace, economic equity, racial equity) should resonate with this group, he might seem too popular with the right, especially with their clearest opposition in the culture-war. Many of them may not agree with RFK Jr.’s “reconciliation” approach to the political divide. Therefore, even tho they see Biden as not progressive enuf, they’ll stick with a candidate that is most clearly on the left.
Trump’s Support Base
According to a Quinnipiac University national poll published January 31st, “Among Republicans, the top issues are immigration (38%), the economy (29%), and preserving democracy in the United States (12%)” (sec. Most Urgent Issue).
Corporations tend to support NAFTA, as it gives permissions to more profitably utilize other nations’ more affordable workers and natural resources. Some also benefit from other nations’ laxity of regulations. While Trump promised to bring back jobs to Americans, which effort many corporations may find to be a disadvantage, he also promised, according to Politico (2024), to further cut business taxes. That draws favor with this Pew type. Many committed conservatives may consider Biden a pro-establishment figure whose stately deportment is closer to Reagan than Trump, but they would strongly disapprove of Biden’s laxity about illegal immigration.
When the populist right complained about the manufacturing jobs going overseas, Trump promised to bring back jobs. When the populist right complains about illegal immigrants undercutting pay rates for manual labor, Trump promises border security. Trump will have continued support from the populist right, and increasingly from other Pew types that have been pushed into dire economic circumstances, so long as they believe his policies will alleviate their own difficulties.
When Trump’s moral questionability might have alienated some religious voters, Republicans effectively shifted attention to culture wars to emphasize similarity with the populist right and especially the faith and flag conservatives within their coalition. Will it work this time?
RFK Jr.’s Support Base
According to a Quinnipiac University national poll published January 31st, among independents, the top issues are preserving democracy in the United States (23%), immigration (19%), and the economy (18%)” (sec. Most Urgent Issue).
The leaders of the duopoly have a strong hold on the election mechanisms that keep third parties at a disadvantage. They also own the legacy media, a main information source of older generations. RFK Jr. has the advantage of appealing strongly to the anti-establishment across left and right, as both agree the duopoly is the largest threat to democracy.
RFK Jr. might offer the hope the anti-establishment left thought it was voting for when Obama ran with that one-word slogan. Obama did fulfill his campaign promise to reform healthcare, which was about as much of an improvement in that area as could realistically be expected to get thru congress. Yet he turned out not to shift policy for foreign conflicts, which irritates the pacifist-leaning outsider left. He allowed the bank bailout to proceed in a way that seemed to offer unwarranted trust that the banks would manage the funds in a respectable way that would not include giving themselves bonuses. As Occupy supporters who identify as political independents, this Pew type hasn’t forgotten that the wealth disparity got worse even under Democrats. Further, they absolutely revere his consistent environmental advocacy.
The ambivalent right (some of whom identify as dissident right) is not put off by the vaccine criticisms of RFK Jr. nor most of the so-called conspiracy theories the establishment left dismisses him for. They are no fans of the establishment media, so RFK Jr.’s messages are more accessible to this younger socially liberal group, especially when supported by high-profile Libertarian-leaning figures such as Joe Rogan and Elon Musk. Former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey has also endorsed him, though formerly favoring Democrat candidates and causes.
Democratic mainstays have a large contingency of working class ethnic minorities. As these have seen their working conditions and economic situation deteriorate, many have moved into agreement with the populist right on issues of opposing illegal immigration and the need to tax the rich more. Some within the progressive left, as a highly educated group, seem less interested in alleviating the economic struggle of less educated ethnic minorities than they are in getting themselves as elite ethnic minorities into positions of power. In other words, their push for equity often centers on percentages of ethnic representation in power, which they presumably expect will lead to their effective advocacy for economic equity, even reparations, for the less advantaged among their ethnic groups. Unfortunately, Obama seemingly showed more loyalty to class than race when trusting the big banks to decide how to manage the bailout funds. Predictably, their (mis)management resulted in privatized profit, socialized losses (see lemon socialism). Political commentators have noted the resulting rightward shift of ethnic minority voting, which presumably enabled Trump’s win in 2016. See How the Democrats Lost the Working Class and Where Have All the Democrats Gone? However, when offered a candidate committed to greater equity and also socially liberal, they are unlikely to side with Trump. Some of Kennedy’s “supporters said they were drawn to what they saw as his message of unity and fairness” (para. 17).
Though polling doesn’t suggest a high level of support from faith and flag conservatives, the fact that Utah was the first to get RFK Jr. officially on the ballot may say something. He is openly a man of faith, and he has a moderate position on abortion.
Thanks for reading. Here’s a related prior post.
Repeat of Quadrants Content
This section repeats the writing in the quadrants, for any who have difficulty reading in that format. Groups are presented in order of political party size. What’s the benefit of the quadrant format anyway? It’s a heuristic that can stick in the visual memory.
Blue Quadrant (top left)
Pew type: Democratic mainstays
• Largest of the Dem-leaning groups
• Older, less college educated
• Most identify as moderate
• Most racially and ethnically diverse of all the groups; many Black Democrats
• Liberal views on race, economics and the social safety net, but more conservative on immigration, crime, military power
• Reliable voters
Pew type: Establishment liberals
• Liberal but prefer gradual change
• Recognize societal ills around race and need for correction, but it should come from laws and institutions
• More likely to back compromise
• Generally optimistic about politics
Very politically active
Red Quadrant (top right)
pro-establishment
Pew type: Committed conservatives
• Highly educated
• Pro-business
• Pro well-managed immigration
• Globalist (support U.S. in world affairs)
• Want limited government
• Fans of Reagan but not Trump
• Very politically active
Pew type: Faith and flag conservatives
• Deeply conservative across issues
• Christianity belongs in public life
• Mostly white and older age
• Strong trump supporters
• Say Jan 6 event overblown by media
• Very politically active
Yellow Quadrant (bottom right)
Pew type: Populist right
• Least college educated
• Negative view of public education
• Most likely to live in a rural area
• Most fervent hard-liners on immigration
• Say U.S. law favors a powerful few
• Say tax the rich more
• Strong Trump supporters
• Very politically concerned
Pew type: Ambivalent right
• Young, not religious
• Want limited government
• Want stricter immigration policy, but it’s not a top issue
• Lean lib on abortion, gay rights, & legalizing recreational drugs
• Most are not Trump supporters
• Not as politically active
Green Quadrant (bottom left)
Pew type: Progressive left
• Young and highly educated
• Largest group to say it backed Sen. Bernie Sanders or Sen. Elizabeth Warren in the primaries (but voted Dem in general election)
• More than two-thirds white
• Extremely liberal policy positions
• Very politically active
Pew type: Outsider left
• Especially liberal on issues of race, immigration, and climate
• Many identify as independents
• Not thrilled with Dems or Republicans
• Don’t believe the U.S. is the best nation
• Less politically active; less reliable voters
• Side Democratic when they do vote
References
Pew Research Center. (2021). Beyond red vs. blue: The political typology. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2021/11/PP_2021.11.09_political-typology_REPORT.pdf