From Tim Miller on Jamie Weinstein's podcast:
About four percent of each party has shifted into the other party. Democrats have gained the security moms in the suburbs … and trump has gained blue collar culturally conservative dudes that don't care at all about Paul Ryan economics. (1:24:37)
In 2015 I had a narrow news feed. I was hearing about so much racism and animosity that it seemed the dark underbelly of America was much larger than I had known. The fear mongering of both sides had worked on me. I remember thinking, “I wish I could go somewhere that people are nice and helpful.” Ironically, I was back in Utah at the time, which is pretty much the epitome of orderly, economically stable, and helpful. But my brain came up with a suggestion: “the 51st state!” I started the process of applying for permanent residence in Canada.
Now that I’ve been there, done that, I realize they have most of the same challenges we do. They’re managing better at some, worse at others. Due to my political mediation projects, during the past 8 years I balanced my media diet across the four quadrants. I also worked on my anxiety in a variety of ways. I’m back in the U.S. now, and I’m not nervous this voting season. I have three core beliefs about this election:
I believe team red and team blue have about equal chance of doing the nation damage, just in different ways.
I believe that how “we the people” treat each other with respect regardless of different views is more important than almost any policy decision. Possibly the most important contribution I can make is to help keep peace among people I care about by having role-playing game-based conversations where people can explore different perspectives and discuss their experiences and explain how policy impacts them directly (see fractioNation.US).
I believe if there’s going to be a civil war, it won’t touch most of us. It will be fought by those on the extreme fringes who are the most ideological and have been whipped into a frenzy by outrage-promoting newsfeed algorithms. It will erupt between the Proud Boys and Antifa, then add in the riot police. Keep your teens home from marches if you can. Reach out to someone across the aisle who you care about. Remind them that they are more important to you as a friend, family, or community member than as a voter.
Overview of the Realignment
If you’ve paid attention to recent political discourse, you’ll have heard that many working class minorities as well as tech moguls who formerly could be counted on to vote Democrat have now sided with the Trump campaign. Meanwhile, some Republican Party leaders have announced support for the Harris campaign. The quadrants below, including Pew political types, offer a research-based framework for the underlying belief structures driving this realignment.
The Duopoly or Uniparty
Regarding the recent endorsement of the Harris campaign by several prominent republicans, one political commentator stated the following:
To have those two poles now joined together inside one party, it's a change from what the American public is used to. The duopoly that we're used to thinking about and rolling our eyes about is now really housed in that one party [referring to the current Democrat Party]. And the Republican Party, while it has some remnants of the party you and I remember as the GOP, looks to me like it is actually transforming into something different….MAGA is more or less the labour movement that had been cut loose by the Democrat Party. I would say they were cut loose largely beginning in the Clinton administration, and that they have now found a home under the GOP banner. And the neocons have moved over under the blue banner….I think we're in the middle of that realignment now (14:06).
On one hot election topic, the split clearly has become establishment versus populist. The Biden administration did create much legislation to reform immigration. Those loyal to Biden blame republicans in congress for stopping the more important legislation, saying they did so to continue the foment that increases Trump’s popularity. Conversely, some republicans claim the bills were packed with unacceptable mandates. The Bipartisan Policy Center makes a detailed comparison of Trump’s immigration policy reforms and Biden’s responses to the same policies. Regardless of which side one blames, elites of both parties have arguably benefitted from the entry of an endless supply of cheap labor (analogous to the Romans’ slaves). To the extent this is true, it widens the wealth gap and depresses wages generally, which especially the populist right rails against. Working class members of the Democratic mainstays whose economic security is similarly threatened now see their interests more aligned with Pew’s populist right. Legal immigrants are especially irritated at the generous handouts given to recent unauthorized arrivals. The passage of so many undocumented has enriched the criminal enterprises that increasingly compromise the safety of their homelands and increase the suspicion of people who look like themselves.
The Anti-establishment View of the Duopoly
Yellow Quadrant
Idealist Rand Paul, promoting a balanced budget, opposes the duopoly’s long-standing agreement that Dems can increase their social services spending as long as Republicans can increase their military spending and corporate subsidies. It’s not his kind of compromise. He’s for austerity. I locate him in the ambivalent right, the name assigned by the Pew researchers. They chose that name because most in this grouping are not as politically active. They aren’t necessarily apathetic about politics, and some call themselves the dissident right. When they are ambivalent, it’s likely because they don’t have an aligned third party candidate who has a real chance.
Green Quadrant
Green spokesperson Ralf Nader has not endorsed RFK Jr., even tho (a) having a similar track record of fighting corporate giants on behalf of public health and safety, and (b) similarly appealing to a left-leaning segment of the anti-establishment, the outsider left.
As a green with friends in the progressive left, I assert three main areas of concern for greens.
Solidarity with the oppressed: Ideologically, both Pew types in the green quadrant are on the side of whoever is most oppressed. Both these Pew types have great concern for immigrants. The progressive left has largely focused on disadvantages based on race and LGBTQ+ identity. The outsider left seems to focus as much or more on animals as the completely voiceless oppressed, whether in factory farms or wildlife with diminishing habitat.
Power to the people: Allegiance of the outsider left hinges on which side they see as more likely to consolidate state and corporate power. Mother Jones says Trump will be a tyrant. RFK Jr. counters that the alliance of team blue with corporate interests is the definition of fascism. Examples include (a) Twitter files (government mandating social media clampdown of free speech in the name of protecting democracy); (b) big pharma subsidized twice, first by government-funded research, then by government paying for pharmaceuticals at often higher prices than other nations do, and mandating vaccinations; and (c) high tech big wind and solar power farms subsidized by the government.
No greenwashing: The progressive left tends to get on board with the establishment left’s green tech solutions. Conversely, the outsider left wants ecological solutions in the form of rooftop solar, low-tech building redesign for passive solar heating and cooling systems, and restoring soil health (pulling CO2 into the ground naturally, not with ineffective subsidized direct air capture pretenses). We’re the idealistic bicyclists demanding austerity and insisting the large-scale wind and solar power systems will harm wildlife and exploit the communities near third world mining operations, as corporations that build and operate them are enriched and subsidized.
Pew Research Center Survey of Political Beliefs
A Pew Research Center survey of the U.S. general public, in 2021, showed clusters of political beliefs and values. The origin of these Pew labels and type descriptors are detailed in an earlier post. Bullet points give an overview of a few relevant descriptors of each Pew type.
Thanks for reading. Here’s a related podcast, The Realignment, that helps listeners make sense of “shifting views on national security, economics, technology, and the role of government in our lives” interviewing James Pogue.
Repeat of Quadrants Content
This section repeats the writing in the quadrants, for any who have difficulty reading in that format. Groups are presented in order of political party size. Bullet points give an overview of a few relevant descriptors of each Pew type.
Auth-left Quadrant
Pew type: Democratic mainstays
Largest of the Dem-leaning groups
Older, less college educated
Most identify as moderate
Most racially and ethnically diverse of all the groups; many Black Democrats
Liberal views on race, economics and the social safety net, but more conservative on immigration, crime, military power
Reliable voters
Pew type: Establishment liberals
Liberal but prefer gradual change
Recognize societal ills around race and need for correction, but it should come from laws and institutions
Highly educated
The Biden administration did create much legislation to reform immigration, but it wasn’t effective. Biden dismantled some of Trumps border policies, believing that immigration could be both compassionate and orderly. The resulting influx of record numbers of migrants has led wage-threatened working class Democratic mainstays to align with the populist right.
Auth-right Quadrant
Pew type: Committed conservatives
Highly educated
Pro-business
Pro well-managed immigration
Globalist (support U.S. in world affairs)
Fans of Reagan but not Trump
Many republican business-oriented leaders benefit from illegal immigration because the immigrants will accept lower wages than the legal minimum. These are the “neocons” now siding with Harris.
Pew type: Faith and flag conservatives
Deeply conservative across issues
Mostly white and older age
Strong trump supporters
Say Jan 6 event overblown by media
Many are now aligned with populist right. These are the culturally conservative MAGA. These are largely church-going people who lean more populist now based on the info-wars. Some of it is conspiratorial, but quite a lot is driven by the left’s lack of caution in green-lighting gender affirming care while shaming and punishing concerned parents.
Lib-right Quadrant
Pew type: Populist right
Least college educated
Negative view of public education
Most likely to live in a rural area
Most fervent hard-liners on immigration
Say U.S. law favors a powerful few
Say tax the rich more
Strong Trump supporters
These are obviously biggest MAGA fans.
Pew type: Ambivalent right
Young, not religious
Want limited government
Lean lib on abortion, gay rights, & legalizing recreational drugs
Most are not Trump supporters
RFK Jr. complained that duopoly party leaders have started or continued wars in the past decades, in contrast to Trump’s stance of wanting to show military power and play diplomatic role, but with more isolationist stance. So RFK Jr. realigned.
Lib-left (Green) Quadrant
Pew type: Progressive left
Young and highly educated
Largest group to say it backed Sen. Bernie Sanders or Sen. Elizabeth Warren
More than two-thirds white
Extremely liberal policy positions
These are obviously siding with Harris.
Pew type: Outsider left
Especially liberal on issues of race, immigration, and climate
Many identify as independents
Less politically active but lean toward Dems
Ideologically on the side of whoever is most oppressed, including animals, these may support the Trump campaign if they see income inequality as an issue that Trump is more likely to ameliorate. They may vote Harris if they think she’ll do more for the most vulnerable. They may vote for RFK Jr., hoping to reach a count that will get his name on every state’s ballot for the next presidential election, as he’s their top pick.