Tulsi Gabbard reportedly “left the Democratic Party to become an independent, saying her old party was dominated by an ‘elitist cabal of warmongers’ and ‘woke’ ideologues” (PBS, 2024, para. 10). This quote captures the essence of the Democrats’ coalition this election, as depicted in the table and quadrants below.
Pew Research Center Survey Results
A Pew Research Center survey of the U.S. general public, in 2021, showed clusters of political beliefs and values. The origin of these Pew labels and type descriptors are detailed in an earlier post. In the first of the quadrant charts below, the bullet points show the research-based characteristics of each quadrant. To clarify, the bullet points summarize Pew findings, but the Pew Research Center did not position the types within quadrants, neither did they assign the types anti-establishment labels.
The current anti-establishment coalition consists of the Pew types with less college education: to some extent the democratic mainstays, to a large extent the faith-and-flag conservatives, most certainly the populist right, and to some extent the ambivalent right. Correlates of the anti-establishment (Trump) vote are underlined.
Thanks for reading. Here’s a related podcast, The Realignment, that helps listeners make sense of “shifting views on national security, economics, technology, and the role of government in our lives” interviewing Noah Smith.
Repeat of Table and Quadrants Content
This section repeats the writing in the table and the quadrants, for any who have difficulty reading in that format. Groups are presented in order of political party size.
Harris supporters (the pro-establishment vote):
On economy & immigration: Committed conservatives are globalist neocon elite on the winning side of the increasing wealth disparity; they benefit from free trade and paying lower wages
On military: Biden administration supported both Ukrainian defense and Israeli defense; tho Harris has spoken against targeting civilians
On race: Committed conservatives (Pew describes as highly educated) agreed the racial conversation could bring DEI to corporations to increase visibility and power (representational equity) for progressive left BIPOC elites as long as they downplay the wealth disparity and reject the populist right as racist (Gabbard’s “woke” ideologues)
On religion: Institutions of higher education have increasingly adopted an atheist or agnostic stance, tho researching and promoting psychological benefits of meditation; believers are increasingly less respected by establishment institutions linked to academia and big media
Trump supporters (the anti-establishment vote):
On economy & immigration: On the losing side of the increasing wealth disparity, the biggest MAGA fans are working class; they don’t want wages driven down by more undocumented immigrants
On military: Trump and RFK Jr. both insist on diplomacy & concessions to end Ukraine conflict, tho both largely support Israeli defense
On race: The populist right (Pew describes as less educated) found common ground with working class democratic mainstays (Pew describes as less educated), especially those Pew describes within this party as the large number of ethnic and racial minorities who are liberal on social services but hold more conservative views on immigration & crime
On religion: Faith and flag conservatives share some beliefs with the green quadrant, which is largely spiritual-but-not-religious; big religions have been establishment institutions, but declined in popularity for decades, losing power and prestige thru scandals
Auth-left Quadrant
Pew type: Democratic mainstays (moderate Democrats)
• Largest of the Dem-leaning groups
• Older, less college educated (underline)
• Most identify as moderate
• Most racially and ethnically diverse of all the groups; many Black Democrats
• Liberal views on race, economics and the social safety net, but more conservative on immigration, crime, military power (underline)
• Reliable voters
Pew type: Establishment liberals
• Liberal but prefer gradual change
• Recognize societal ills around race and need for correction, but it should come from laws and institutions
• Highly educated
Led by CNN. Class traitor Nick Hanauer hates neocons, but loves Biden’s middle-out economics, which presumably would continue under Harris?
Auth-right Quadrant
Pew type: Committed conservatives (corporate globalist hawks)
• Highly educated
• Pro-business
• Pro well-managed immigration
• Globalist (support U.S. in world affairs)
• Fans of Reagan but not Trump
Led by Dick Cheney, globalist “neocons” now side with Harris.
Pew type: Faith and flag conservatives
• Deeply conservative across issues
• Mostly white and older age
• Strong trump supporters (underline)
• Say Jan 6 event overblown by media (underline)
Led by Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, Trump is seen as flawed but chosen by God.
Lib-right Quadrant
Pew type: Populist right
• Least college educated (underline)
• Negative view of public education (underline)
• Most likely to live in a rural area (underline)
• Most fervent hard-liners on immigration (underline)
• Say U.S. law favors a powerful few (underline)
• Say tax the rich more (underline)
• Strong Trump supporters (underline)
Led by Trump, these are the biggest MAGA fans.
Pew type: Ambivalent right (dissident right)
• Young, not religious
• Want limited government (underline)
• Lean lib on abortion, gay rights, & legalizing recreational drugs
• Most are not Trump supporters
Led by J. D. Vance & Elon Musk, libertarians want free speech. They favor isolationist stance, RFK Jr. & Tulsi Gabbard’s diplomatic end to Ukraine war. RFK Jr.’s refusal to fall in line with official narratives on vaccines endeared him to libertarian anti-vaxers.
Lib-left (Green) Quadrant
Pew type: Progressive left
• Young and highly educated
• Largest group to say it backed Sen. Bernie Sanders or Sen. Elizabeth Warren
• More than two-thirds white
• Extremely liberal policy positions
Led by Harris, globalism seems compatible with multiculturalism, even tho rife with exploitation of foreign workers and natural resources.
Pew type: Outsider left
• Especially liberal on issues of race, immigration, and climate
• Many identify as independents (underline)
• Less politically active but lean to Dems
Led by RFK Jr., an ardent environmental lawyer and activist, this quadrant would have some crunchy all-natural MAHA voters. He tried first to join Democrat team to serve in administration, but his earlier refusal to fall in line with official narratives on vaccines alienated him from the establishment liberals.